[austin-cheney]

This is something that can be gamed out mathematically, for example time to goal minus time to refactor.

As someone who has been writing software and/or managing operations for 20 years here is what I have noticed:

* The more experienced people get the more cognizant they become of fatigue in that they know when to take a step back.

* The more experienced people get the faster they get in that they know how to approach repeated problems.

* People do not necessarily get better with experience. Some developers never fully embrace automation, especially if they are reliant on certain tools versus original solution discovery.

Based on that it’s natural that some older developers tend to decline with age while others continue to grow in capability and endurance. The challenge is to identify for that versus those who mask it.

[agentultra]

Software developer of more than 20 years.

I wouldn't say, "decline," to be charitable. I tend to lean more on mathematics and writing. That often makes up for the lack of stamina.

When I look back on code I wrote 15, 20 years or more ago... it's fine but it lacks the sophistication I have now. I didn't know what I didn't know back then and had to learn. I can see in my code where I encountered a problem and instead of solving it I added more code until it, "worked."

I wasn't university educated so that's explains a bit of it. I didn't start picking up pure functional programming and formal methods until my mid thirties (gosh, has it been a decade already?). I worked through Harvard's Abstract Algebra at 38. I'm leaning more about writing proofs and proof engineering in my spare time while continuing to stream work in Haskell on various libraries and projects. And I'm in my 40s -- I'm doing more programming and mathematics now than ever.

I'm also playing in a band, practice calisthenics and skateboarding, and have been improving my illustration skills with ink.

It seems like the discovery of the article is that if you don't use your skills they start to decline as early as your late 20s. All it takes is practice to maintain and improve them!

I might get a little tired every now and then and can't keep every library I've used in my head all at once. But I tend to rely more on mathematics and specifications and writing. I write less code now. I remove code. And I keep programs and systems fast and correct.

Nothing declining here!

[austin-cheney]

I suspect you are better at architecture now than you were 15-20 years ago, such that you don’t have to struggle over how to solve many complex problems. The solutions and their planning are likely fluid now and quickly envisioned. That is something to comes from years of practice problem solving.

Not everyone has that though, even among people who claim to be well experienced. If those among us are aging and never fully developed the skills to save on manual effort they will likely appear as if in decline. Others that continue to find news ways to deliver higher quality at ever decreasing costs will continue to demonstrate superior value.

> All it takes is practice to maintain and improve them!

That is largely true for anything in that maintenance costs less than recovery and maintenance costs more than original solution delivery for someone well practiced at delivering original solutions. Not everyone invests in the practice to do this though.

[mistrial9]

> . Some developers never fully embrace automation, especially if they are reliant on certain tools versus original solution discovery.

can you expand on that for clarity ?

[austin-cheney]

Some developers never really learn to actually program. This is largely due to chasing fashions. In the past this has been around things like Java Spring or JavaScript React. Instead of learning to write original software they get really good at using a tool. Now the new fashion is expecting AI to do it for them. When people build their careers around this it’s all they can do and never dig deeper. This works well for seeking employment, but doesn’t allow for practical skills growth.

[nunez]

They don't embrace AI is how I read that.