[arandomusername]

The regions that Russia is after, has some vague historic link to Russia, had a high pro Russian population percentage or provided land connection to Crimea as well as water supply that was blocked by Ukraine. I do believe that there is a good chance Putin would be satisfied with the eastern oblasts. It would also be a lot more difficult holding western part of Ukraine as their population is much more anti-Russia. I don't know for certain, and it is speculation, but that's what I think.

I completely understand why Zelenskyy wants security guarantees. I would too in his place. I don't blame him for that at all - but I don't think it will happen and I would not want my country to provide any security guarantee for Ukraine. I personally would not go to war for Ukraine.

[libertine]

> The regions that Russia is after, has some vague historic link to Russia, had a high pro Russian population percentage or provided land connection to Crimea as well as water supply that was blocked by Ukraine.

Huge red flag here and a big lie. Let's break it down:

Those "pro russia regions" voted for Zelensky, which was very clear about Ukraine's independence and sovereignty.[0]

> I personally would not go to war for Ukraine.

At the rate you're spreading disinformation here, one does start to wonder if you're even in a Western country lmao

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_presidential_el...

[arandomusername]

Zelenskyy didn't run on anti Russian. He gained support because he ran on anti corruption and ending the wars in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. He was less anti Russian than Petro Poroshenko, which is why Zelenskyy received more share than Poroshenko in those regions as opposed to more western parts of Ukraine.

Them having high pro russian perc: https://sites.tufts.edu/gis/files/2020/07/hayward_olivia_GIS...

Also those oblasts have a high ethnic population, at around ~38% https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Articles/A...

I'm not saying those regions are more pro russia than Ukraine, but that there is non minor population in there that is pro russia, ethnically russian or speaks russian - which is why russia wants them.

What do you think the russian's end goal here is? To capture all of Ukraine? And then go to Europe?

> At the rate you're spreading disinformation here, one does start to wonder if you're even in a Western country lmao

My country shares the border with Ukraine - I'm not separated from them by an ocean. Just because you don't like facts, doesn't make it disinformation.

[mopsi]

  I'm not saying those regions are more pro russia than Ukraine, but that there is non minor population in there that is pro russia, ethnically russian or speaks russian - which is why russia wants them.

That's a very weak argument. For example, Kherson, one of the four officially annexed regions of Ukraine, is 82% Ukrainian and only 14% Russian. Even Brighton Beach and a number of other Brooklyn neighborhoods have more Russians than that. And Russian ethnic background does not mean that they support the war: over 80% Russians in Ukraine say that Russia has no right over any part of Ukraine.

Polling leaked from Russian authorities running the occupied territories revealed the same thing: even after hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians had fled as refugees, and the remaining had been subjected to terror, nowhere did the support for joining Russia exceed 30%.

This fits nicely with the pre-war polls that showed support ranging from 1% in Kherson to 13% in Luhansk.

[arandomusername]

Kherson oblast is for the land bridge to Crimea

Theres enough ethnic russians in there, plus history, for russia to justify (to its citizens / to its allies) the invasion. I dont think the invasion is justified, but do think that russia will stop at the 4 eastern oblasts.

I dont see any good reason why russia would want to take the rest of Ukraine unless they posed a threat (e.g hosting NATO bases/missiles, which wont happen)

Maybe Im wrong. But in my opinion, it's worth the risk to stop the deaths of Ukrainian men.

[mopsi]

  Kherson oblast is for the land bridge to Crimea

And Odessa and Mykolaiv oblasts are for the next obvious "land bridge" to Transnistria, and so forth. There's always some excuse.

[arandomusername]

Maybe. What's the alternative? Keep the war going indefinitely?