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by ianferrel 474 days ago
Expected Value is Expected Value, though.

Even if you can't buy every ticket, there is well-established math about how to optimize profit from a venture with known risk and reward, and the math does not require you to exhaust the statistical universe.

1 comments

There is clearly a limit on practicality though. Unless you are suggesting someone should sell their 401k and buy Powerball tickets any time the jackpot exceeds the odds of winning simply because it has positive EV?
The math also tells you what percentage of your wealth to bet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
That’s why it’s big syndicates that do it, to lesson anyone one persons exposure.