[gagan2020]

Chinese strategy is open-source software part and earn on robotics part. And, They are already ahead of everyone in that game.

These things are pretty interesting as they are developing. What US will do to retain its power?

BTW I am Indian and we are not even in the race as country. :(

[nazgulsenpai]

If I had to guess, more tariffs and sanctions that increase the competing nation's self-reliance and harm domestic consumers. Perhaps my peabrain just can't comprehend the wisdom of policymakers on the sanctions front, but it just seems like all it does is empower the target long-term.

[h0l0cube]

The tarrifs are for the US to build it's own domestic capabilities, but this will ultimately shift the rest of the world's trade away from the US and toward each other. It's a trade-off – no pun intended – between local jobs/national security and downgrading their own economy/geo-political standing/currency. Anyone who's been making financial bets on business as usual for globalization is going to see a bit of a speed bump over the next few years, but in the long term it's the US taking an L to undo decades of undermining their own peoples' prospects from offshoring their entire manufacturing capability. Their trump card - still no pun intended - is their military capability, which the world will have to wean themselves off first.

[whatshisface]

Tariffs don't create local jobs, they shut down exporting industries (other countries buy our exports with the dollars we pay them for our imports) and some of those people may over time transition to non-export industries.

Here's an analysis indicating how many jobs would be destroyed in total over several scenarios: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs...

[h0l0cube]

They will, out of sheer necessity. Local industries will be incentivized to restart. And of course, there are already carve-outs for the automotive sector that needs steel, overseas components, etc. I expect more carve-outs will be made, esp. for the military.

I don't think the tariffs are being managed intelligently, but they will have the intended effect of moving manufacturing back to the US, even if, in the short term, it's going to inflate prices, and yes, put a lot of businesses in peril.

[seanmcdirmid]

> even if, in the short term, it's going to inflate prices, and yes, put a lot of businesses in peril.

This is optimistic. They could totally inflate prices in the long term, and not just create inflation, but reduce the standard of living Americans are used to. That in itself is fine as Americans probably consume too much, but living in the USA will become more like living in Europe where many goods are much more expensive.

Worst case is that American Juche turns out to be just like North Korean Juche.

[h0l0cube]

> They could totally inflate prices in the long term, and not just create inflation

This will all happen. But as I said, this is a trade-off. Devalue the currency, incentivize local production, increase exports, revive the working class – that's the long term goal.

> but reduce the standard of living Americans are used to.

Whose standard of living though? It's well and good if you're in a comfy desk job with health care and a pension. The discontent that led to Trump's rise is real, and it's routinely overlooked when considering how to counter him. Of the everyday people, those who have stable jobs and purpose aren't voting for Trump. (Of the wealthy, it's probably a lot more cynical who voted for Trump)

I'm not in favor of the policy, the manner in which it's being applied, or the people that are doing it, but reversing off-shoring is a consequence of using protectionist policies – be it tariffs, or subsidies.

High-skill work, and pencil-pushing desk jobs don't cover 100% of the population, and has lead to a lot of unproductive busy-work in the cities. The offshoring of blue-collar work bred the discontent that led to Trump. Trump fancies himself the new William McKinley and is using the cudgel of tariffs to re-onshore manufacturing. This is a process he started in his first administration, that was retained by Biden, and now he's doubling down and doing exactly what he promised he would – and somehow his voters are surprised?

Worse still, those service economy jobs keeping the coastal cities alive (both low skill and high skill) are on the verge of being replaced by AI – whether that's one year or 20, I don't know—though I'm wagering the latter. Physical labor is going to become more valuable as robotics is still way behind in technological development. I don't have a crystal ball, but I'd wager that–at least counterfactually—the US will have more jobs by enacting protectionist policy.

> Worst case is that American Juche turns out to be just like North Korean Juche.

Do you really in your heart of hearts think this is going to happen? I'm pretty sure the subjugation of the American people by the government would be feasible, let alone easy.

[whatshisface]

You're thinking about the bolt factory that will open, but what about the factories that close? Putting, as you say, businesses in peril, gets rid of jobs.

As for the carve-outs, there isn't a single US industry that doesn't rely on imports from lower down the supply chain.

[h0l0cube]

Protectionist policy, if applied consistently, will actually lead to more jobs (and higher wages) eventually, but also higher inflation and job losses in the short term, and a more insular economy. It's foolish to go so hard, and so fast – or this is just a negotiation tactic – so I think the Trump administration is going to compromise by necessity, but in time supply chains will adjust to the new reality, and tariffs can increase.

[pstuart]

The tariffs are seen as "free money" that will allow for cutting taxes on the wealthy. Note that the current messaging is "we spend too much money" and there's nothing about "we need to invest in _foo_"

[h0l0cube]

Advanced chip fabs, and battery manufacturers are the first counterexamples that come to mind. The government doesn't need to invest, they just need to watch the free market realign their manufacturing to maintain access to the US economy. Tariffs have been around since Trumps first term, and were retained by Biden, and they're already doing what they intended.

[bugglebeetle]

Unitree just open-sourced their robot designs:

https://sc.mp/sr30f

China’s strategy is to prevent any one bloc from achieving dominance and cutting off the others, while being the sole locus for the killer combination of industrial capacity + advanced research.

[aurareturn]

  China’s strategy is to prevent any one bloc from achieving dominance and cutting off the others, while being the sole locus for the killer combination of industrial capacity + advanced research.

You're acting like these startups are controlled by the Chinese government. In reality, they're just like any other American startup. They make decisions on how to make the most money - not what the Chinese government wants.

[esalman]

What if aligning with Chinese interest becomes the best way to make money? What stopping the Chinese government from providing better incentives to businesses and academics?

[aurareturn]

You mean like what Trump has been doing? And most governments around the world?

[asadm]

Not really. It seems unitree didn't open source anything. Not anything useful.

[dtquad]

>BTW I am Indian and we are not even in the race as country

Why are you surprised?

India was on a per capita basis poorer than sub-Saharan Africa until 2004.

The only reason India is no longer poorer than Africa is because the West (the IMF and World Bank) forced India to do structural reforms in 1991 that stopped the downward trajectory of the Indian economy since its 1947 independence.

[aurareturn]

  The only reason India is no longer poorer than Africa is because the West (the IMF and World Bank) forced India to do structural reforms in 1991 that stopped the downward trajectory of the Indian economy since its 1947 independence.

India had the world's largest GDP at some point in its history. Why did India lose its status?

[holoduke]

Also part of their culture/identity. A good thing i believe.

[dcreater]

India is absolutely embarrassing. Could have been an extremely important 3rd party that obviates the moronic US vs China, us or them, fReEdOm vs communism narrative with all the talent it has.

[esalman]

Turns out conservatism and far right demagoguery is not great for progress.