[jgilias]

Bless you.

Living 200km from the Russian border, I worry that 10 years is far too long. If Putin “reads the room”, he knows his best bet is to push things forward before the midterms. In case Tramp doesn’t manage to rig the elections.

So militarily, we might have less than 2 years.

I really, really, really hope I’m wrong.

[fatbird]

10 years is total independence. There's a lot of independence to be seized in the coming year (starting with not waiting for US decisions) and EU leaders seem to be quite enthusiastic about it.

From analysts I follow, the feeling is that EU support will sustain Ukraine at least through 2025, with the greatest weakness being ammunition for Patriot and GLMRS systems (though thankfully those have decreased in importance as drones take over). And 2026 is when the cumulative damage to Russia's economy really snowballs. If Ukraine makes it through 2025, I'm relatively optimistic.

My great fear in 2024 was the flagging support for Ukraine due to war-weariness and lack of a resolution, would push some parties towards a more passive, accommodationist outcome. We can thank Trump for this: the fire to see Ukraine win has been lit again.

Slava Ukraini, my friend. Stay safe.