| This comes on the heels of meetings with European leaders, which poses two possibilities: 1 - European leaders are talking the talk but afraid of actually walking the walk with respect to Russia, even despite Putin being drastically weakened over the last two years, which does not bode well at all. We have been hearing much in recent years about the (dismal) state of readiness within the US military. Given reliance on the US for defense, it is entirely plausible the state of European militaries is even worse. Russia and Iran are not going to stop their push; we need a strong Europe to prevent a nightmare scenario. 2 - It is also possible that Zelensky actually was being overly pushy, asking for too much, reneging on deals, exploiting media, etc. and European countries chose to curb discussions as well, forcing him to come back to the table with the US. This tracks with past difficulties the Biden administration faced in talks with Zelensky[A] and aligns with the narrative that Trump has been pushing in recent days. This, honestly, would be an even worse scenario. That would somehow place Zelensky _below_ Trump in reasonable-ness and diplomatic maturity, which is an already impossibly low bar. This of course does not bode well for peace talks. Regardless of political stance I think we can all agree the current West is not ready for WW3 to start right away. I feel this is slightly less likely as it seems Zelensky is coming back to the table on his own imperative. [A] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-los... |
Unless you really believe that one month of Trump is all it takes for the EU to suddenly take their own defense seriously, and damn the political consequences when the costs hit.
2 I don't think so, I believe he's understandably desperate for security guarantees that go further than the paper ones Russia blew past in 2014 and 2022. Sadly I think he isn't getting them, and between the fiction of European unity and the reality of economic partnership with the US, the latter is more likely to lead to meaningful security.