[nverno]

Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.

[lawgimenez]

I think you forgot that US has over 9 bases here, and we are less than a hundred miles below Taiwan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bases_in_the_Phi...

[borsecplata]

There is no scenario possible in which china invades taiwan and "surprise" is involved. In ukraine it took months for russia to prepare at the border.

[bloomingkales]

Why not buy them out? If you give everyone 100k it’s only 2.4 trillion. Or even better, just buy out the militant element.

[borsecplata]

Not everything is for sale, especially at this ridiculous price. Why would you think the taiwanese people are so poor that they would all betray their country for 100k?

[_t9ow]

> the taiwanese people are so poor that they would all betray their country for 100k?

You'd be surprised. I'm not saying that all of them (or even most of them) will accept the payment, but there have been multiple cases of espionage committed by Taiwanese military personnel for extremely trifling amounts of monetary reward from the Chinese. Here's just one example: https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121222/8572208

Excerpt:

"檢警調查，李慧馨陳姓小弟在台北市中山區放款接觸軍人，2023年6月李女以新北市蘆洲區瑞磘宮主身分及宗教交流名義至澳門，再到大陸接觸國安情資人員，返台以金錢引誘缺錢軍人。

李女等人要求軍人交出軍人身分證審核後，穿制服拿五星旗拍攝宣告投降影片，呼口號「中國人不打中國人，我反對戰爭」，用Telegram傳送交付影片「閱後即焚」，偷公務文書，交付航線圖、演習時間等多項軍機，收賄依資料機密程度計價，吸收同袍可提高報酬。

張、林、劉、吳、彭、李姚姓及兩名陳姓現、退役軍人涉案，涵蓋陸軍、海軍、憲兵軍官、士官、士兵，最高階為中尉，僅劉獲利15萬元台幣(約4500美元)，其他人尚未拿到犯罪所得。"

Translation:

"According to the investigation by the police and prosecutors, Li Huixin's younger associate, surnamed Chen, was involved in lending money to military personnel in the Zhongshan District of Taipei City. In June 2023, Li traveled to Macau under the pretense of religious exchange and as the head of Ruixian Temple in Luzhou District, New Taipei City. From there, she went to mainland China and made contact with national security intelligence personnel. Upon returning to Taiwan, she used money to lure financially struggling military personnel.

Li and her associates required military personnel to submit their military identification cards for verification. Afterward, they were asked to wear uniforms and film surrender videos while holding the Chinese five-star flag, chanting slogans such as "Chinese people do not fight Chinese people, I oppose war." These videos were then transmitted via Telegram with a self-destruct feature. The group also stole official documents and provided information such as flight paths and military exercise schedules. Bribes were paid based on the confidentiality level of the data, and recruiting fellow soldiers could increase rewards.

The case involves active and retired military personnel with the surnames Zhang, Lin, Liu, Wu, Peng, Li, Yao, and two individuals surnamed Chen. The suspects come from various military branches, including the Army, Navy, and Military Police, spanning officers, non-commissioned officers, and enlisted soldiers. The highest-ranking officer involved was a lieutenant. Among them, only Liu received illicit gains amounting to NT$150,000 (approximately USD 4,500), while the others had not yet received any criminal proceeds."

[Lerc]

There are two significant points to make about instances like this.

Finding someone who meets Criteria X is a long way from finding either a Majority or even just enough of a minority to make a difference.

When people believe their action will not make a difference, they pay less heed to the consequences of their actions. People will take money to do things if they don't think it will change much.

There are probably plenty of gun runners who sell guns to rebels that would should they succeed in their rebellion it would be detrimental to the gun-running business. Nevertheless they would happily sell them guns to them while they think the rebellion is doomed.

It's not always that simple though. Significant strategic decisions can involve projecting ineffectiveness to obtain the support of those who do not want you to be effective. Because of this, people have committed betrayals that have turned out to be far more significant than they imagined. I suspect this happens more often in fiction than real life, but fiction more frequently focuses on the significant. Real life produces the significant by having millions with the one in a million chance of being significant.

[_t9ow]

> When people believe their action will not make a difference, they pay less heed to the consequences of their actions. People will take money to do things if they don't think it will change much.

So in a completely hypothetical scenario, if the CCP surreptitiously offers 10,000USD (or pick any other amount you want) to each Taiwanese citizen who votes in favour of reunification, might we not potentially end up in a situation where >50% of Taiwanese voters accept the deal because each of them labours under the erroneous assumption that he or she is in the minority?

[borsecplata]

In another completely hypothetical scenario, if trump offers 10.000USD to each canadian citizen to vote to become the 51st US state, might we end up in a situation in which >50% canadians vote yes? Food for thought.

[lupusreal]

Would you subject your family to a Cultural Revolution in exchange for 100k? Add several zeros and assurances of safe passage out of the country and maybe you'd be onto something, but that's not going to happen for numerous reasons.

The PRC already buys the loyalty of who they can in Taiwan, but Taiwan nevertheless remains resolute.

[ecshafer]

The cultural revolution happened 50-60 years ago. What culture would change in Taiwan? Mainland and Taiwan already share a lot of media.

[ebruchez]

I think the GP meant "a" cultural revolution, not "the" cultural revolution. But yes, the CCP taking over Taiwan would erode and then try to erase the beautiful and diverse culture of Taiwan. Schools will teach obedience to the CCP. History will be rewritten. Free media and foreign media will be censored. The entire set of democratic institutions of Taiwan will be dismantled. And you can go on and on.

[sebzim4500]

I think this strategy could possible work with the US taking Greenland (although I think that plan has been abandoned) but there is no way that Taiwan would accept such a small amount.