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Its easy to think in extremes, but the reality will be far more moderate than your characterization. Remember: US policies have a way of flip-flopping every two years as new Presidents and Senators take office, and its very likely that unless Trump can score some massive wins in 2025, Democrats will retake Congressional majority in 2026; the base is incited, if these comments are anything to look at. But, the direction won't change: More isolationist, greater investment in homeland manufacturing and less global force projection, but still a significant and growing international trade presence, and a signatory to global security guarantees. Here's how I put it: America bared the brunt three MAJOR, timeline-altering events in the past 25 years: 9/11, the global financial crisis, and COVID (I am not saying the rest of the world did not bare some of these, just that the US did). To think we'd just roll with the punches and there'd be no consequences of these is, frankly, ridiculous: 9/11 led to multiple forever wars that cost America an extreme amount of money and lives for almost no gain, not really even victory. Its lasting impact will be an America that is more hesitant to project force globally. The GFC led to massive debt spending and an ongoing financial crisis that America still hasn't fully recovered from. Just when we were ramping up to start recovery, COVID hits and we do it all over again. Its lasting impact will be an America that is more hesitant to give away free stuff or take the raw end of trade deals. |
Yes but until the trump era, things remained relatively consistent in terms of international relations.
Flipping on and off 25% tariffs (or even the threat of) is going to have a long term effect regardless.
Flipping on and off the level of interest in international norms, is going to have a long term effect.
And its already ratcheted, things are going to be worse this term than Trumps last term. The next MAGA presidents term is going to be worse again.
Just because its not a paved road doesn't mean you aren't going down a hill.
For me however, this might just be the justification we need to close Pine Gap and US access to the joint submarine radio in WA.