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by DamnYuppie 476 days ago
The U.S. absolutely defends Taiwan because losing it isn’t an option!

Taiwan currently produces over 85% of the world’s advanced semiconductors. Letting China take Taiwan would hand the CCP control over the global tech supply chain, crippling the U.S. economy and military. That’s a non starter.

No nation with anything to lose will be using nukes..EVER. The game has been understood for 75 years: mutual destruction means no winners. The U.S. has more nukes, better missiles, and full second-strike capability. China knows this, so nukes aren’t on the table.

The U.S. doesn’t need to invade just stop China’s invasion. Amphibious assaults are the hardest military operation, and China has zero real world experience in them or in fighting hot wars at all. We only need to sink their fleet or disrupt shipping to and from their ports. They know the risk, which is why they haven’t tried.

Now 5 years form now if we are much less dependent on them for semi-conductors that is a different story, but the realities of today. For now? Yeah, we throw down.

Also there is the scenario where China co-opts or influences Taiwans elections such that leadership moves back to a pro China stance. Not impossible, that would really put the US in a bind and I am not sure what would happen then but military engagements would seem much less likely.

1 comments

Losing Taiwan is an option, and that's exactly the problem. It's not American territory, and China knows they can force America's hand by dominating their navy. If you can neutralize America's will to fight with DF-21s from standoff range, you can bring them to the table for negotiations. American troops have better things to die for than the supply chain of the iPhone 17.

To be honest this is a really immature depiction of the conflict, especially for a site like HN. China has demonstrated their willingness and capability to stage a credible naval assault, if you're still skeptical then I think you're blinded by jingoist ambition. Taiwan is a long ways from home, America can't deter China just with their surface fleet.