[re-thc]

> If I were China

I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud).

It's currently:

- the best place to show military might (the "drills")

- the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU

- replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business

[roenxi]

China is huge, huge things don't do subtlety well over any long timeframe. It is hard enough to get people to do move in sync with clear communications, let alone when there are confusing signals.

If China says they want control of Taiwan, the base scenario is they are serious. The only thing holding them back is how expensive it is to execute on that want. Although since the action is off the Chinese coast and China appears to be stronger than the US right now I don't see how this ends well for Taiwan.

[justahuman74]

It's not just expense, it's generalized threat aversion.

Even if China can control the waters around them, they may find them selves boxed in. It doesn't take a lot of sunken cargo ships for operators to refuse to run the boats

[throwaway290]

> replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business

explain?

[re-thc]

> explain?

Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not).

There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites.

Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days.

A lot of Chinese gangs in Asia used to operate out of Hong Kong. When 1997 happened (i.e. return to China), most of them gave up or moved to other places like Taiwan since China has the death penalty.

[throwaway290]

> Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not).

Does that make it a place for shady deals?

> There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites

Gambling is illegal in Taiwan

> Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days.

Citation needed

[re-thc]

> Does that make it a place for shady deals?

Where do you expect them to go then? It's the most logical place.

> Gambling is illegal in Taiwan

They aren't offering gambling services in Taiwan to Taiwanese people. Hence it's definitely a gray area.

> Citation needed

VIA technologies? Too old, link likely wiped, but you can look the history. VIA technologies went into a JV with China in 2013 called Zhaoxin. Before that they literally never touched the x86 for years. There was no way for China to otherwise acquire an x86 license (this was before ARM would be a thing).

For reference you can compare it to how AMD handled a similar JV [0] and see stark differences. AMD went to long lengths to protect their IP and then stopped once they no longer needed to.

If we have to keep going, HTC also eventually suffered a similar but different fate. Funny that both companies have something to do with a certain someone...

[0]: https://wccftech.com/no-amd-did-not-sell-keys-kingdom-how-th...

[JumpCrisscross]

> wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan

China does. Xi does not. Trump has been the bailout to Xi that China’s wolf warriors and Putin were to America after the Iraq & Afghanistan wars.

[re-thc]

> China does. Xi does not.

At the end of the day the leadership is who makes the decisions. The notion of a "country" does not.

[luthus001]

That's too simplistic. Even a dictator has to balance many things - the loyalty and competency of his generals, prevailing sentiments of his troops and of society in general, and much more. Large scale dissent is problematic even to authoritarians. An extended strike by key workers, like truck drivers, could cause outright collapse and regime change, so can a military coup by disgruntled troops.

What Xi has said so far may have been misrepresented by the media, and exaggerated to rally public support for the new Cold War and for more military spending. What Xi actually said is he would not allow formal independence of Taiwan, and that he prefers closer relations/integration with Taiwan for an eventual "reunited" outcome, saying nothing of the status quo or that he would change it by force. For as long as the economic deterrence exists, I highly doubt that a war would happen over Taiwan barring one of 2 scenarios: 1)Taiwan declears formal independence by amending its Constitution, or 2) western troops, bases, or "security guarantees" are established over Taiwan