[cc101]

I'm sympathetic to what you are saying, but you should include the increase in the number of things a programmer needs to know and to consider today. I've been programming for 57 years. There is a huge amount to know and the tasks are huge compared to what I knew and did back in 1968.

Over that time I grew as a programmer as the work became more difficult. I couldn't keep up with the technology. In spite of my attempts to keep up, it seemed that every few years I had to further limit the scope of my work in order to cope. Judging by my experience, today competent programmers will fall further and further behind with what they know becoming more obsolete while they restrict their scope so they can learn the new work on the job. Young programmers won't need to know much of what today's competent programmers know. At the same time the increasing complexity of their assignments will require them to go deeper into new matters, and they in turn will become overwhelmed. And so on it will go.

On the other hand, perhaps I don't know what I'm talking about. : )