[Paradigma11]

A step forward would be to show for all those solar/wind + battery proposals the expected uptime and distributions given historical weather and how climate change might affect that.

For example this solution would be sufficient and have no blackouts/brownouts per year in 99% of historical data....

[kragen]

We can do a pretty good job of predicting solar and wind production; that's done routinely. What's harder is predicting how load will change when electric energy is nearly free in most daytimes and expensive on calm nights.

[Paradigma11]

That does not matter. You can only postpone washing your clothes for so long and heating in northern winters is non optional. The problem are things like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute

Extreme weather events are what is important and we do have the data.

[kragen]

Heating in particular is an especially easy problem to solve; various kinds of thermal energy storage (sensible-heat, phase-change, TCES) can store heat for later climate-control purposes several orders of magnitude more cheaply than batteries. Washing your clothes is a harder problem, although a stockpile of clean clothes is easily stored.

Predicting how willing Swedes will be 10 years from now to buy extra jeans and install phase-change energy storage in their houses, however, that's beyond anybody's ability.