[maratc]

I don't think this is anywhere remotely likely.

The US performs a two-fold security function in Europe: first, it protects Europe from extra-European threats. Second, it protects Europe from intra-European threats. If however the US exits Europe, both kinds of threats become a reality overnight. When you think of what Europe is going to do if faced with any of these situations, it becomes very clear that China has absolutely nothing to offer on either front.

[navane]

The extra European threat is not protected by the us anymore. And what even is an intra European threat? US is gonna intervene in a German - French war?

[throwaway48476]

Ideally there would be a 20 year plan to drawdown in Europe and a replacement security architecture. I don't think there's currently any strategic vision, not that Biden had one either.

[maratc]

Agreed. Biden however saw Europe as allies; Trump sees them as "free-riders".