| Used to be UA needed EU+USA. Now EU, sans USA, needs UA, because EU is militarily weak. If UA falls, EU will fall also; it cannot stop Vladimir, and this before considering the massiive impact of drones, which only RU and UA know how to operate effectively. EU+UA is enough to keep UA up and this protects EU. All in all, EU will keep UA up, however it is done, and in the end it will require EU military involvement. Maybe we get there sooner now, rather than later. I think the capability to retake lost UA terrain belongs to USA and massive military buildup in UA. EU military in UA keeps UA up just fine, but doesn't retake terrain - not enough military force for that. Ends up with cease-fire, and UA not in NATO, as USA/HU/SK will prevent it, but probably security guarantees and troops on ground from rest of EU. Everyone then settles down to the next cold war (and RU economy post-war spends a while in strong recession, taking immediate pressure off). Problem is, Vladimir effectively subverts Western elections through social media. How do you have free and fair elections with that going on? |