[dluan]

China is smart enough to know that US diplomacy lasts longer than a 4 year term. They've been operating off the 1992 Consensus, and had a longstanding agreement with the US re: One China Policy that was upended by Obama, and then Biden. Trump's chaotic swings are a blip.

China is also smart enough to have been watching the "decoupling" pushed by the Obama-era CIA starting in the late 2010s, and then the Russian invasion, so an actual Taiwanese land invasion won't happen until China is fully decoupled, and even then there is the much bigger international fallout. China won't throw away its position as world factory. Within China there are too many people in the party who don't see a land invasion as feasible.

All of the recent sabrerattling by the US and pushing Taiwan for a declaration of independence is what would trigger an invasion. To think that opportunistically exploiting a senile president's term to act on this conflict grossly misunderstands the entire Taiwan/China situation. And it says more about you and how Americans view global diplomacy.