[trackone]

Things like this make it seem like China will be much more likely to try and retake Taiwan soon. Seeing things like this, it is hard to imagine that the US will help defend Taiwan by providing military aid. I can imagine that trump will try to ask for something in return first. Even something like trump asking for TSMC to be sold to trump supporters (musk and others) seems likely to happen.

[tnt128]

The risk of China taking Taiwan by force, unprovoked, in the near future is vastly overblown, in my opinion. Everyone involved, including China, prefers the status quo. If there’s one thing to know about war, it’s that it’s unpredictable. China hasn’t been involved in a war for decades, and while its military looks good on paper, its actual performance in a real war still unknown. Failing to win or even losing a war with Taiwan would mean saying goodbye to its global dominance ambitions, and weaken Xi's leadership.

The Chinese are strategic and patient. They just need to wait a few more years until they are able to blockade the entire island for long period of time. Then they can potentially take the island without firing a single shot. they don’t need to take on this kind of risk right now.

[ggreer]

> China hasn’t been involved in a war for decades, and while its military looks good on paper, its actual performance in a real war still unknown.

This is a very important point. While China's military is huge and technologically advanced, it is structured very differently from western powers. To reduce the risk of a military coup, the PRC split up control of air, ground, and naval units, making it difficult to conduct joint operations. China's military is also structured more like the Soviet system, where decisions are made at the highest levels of command and lower levels are given little discretion. Information going up and down the chain of command can be delayed, ignored, or corrupted. This is inefficient in peacetime and can be disastrous in combat.

In contrast, most western powers have military branches that combine air, ground, and water forces (the US Army is the second-largest air force in the world, behind the US Air Force), and they are organized in a manner that encourages joint operations. Western militaries also push decisions to the lowest level possible, allowing forces to quickly adapt to changing conditions in combat.

Lastly, China has limited air refueling capability. This reduces the range and effectiveness of their air units. To reach targets far away, aircraft must carry external fuel tanks, compromising stealth, speed, and maneuverability.

It is for these reasons that China is very hesitant to test their military against any modern force. They're trying to fix these issues, but the PRC can't adopt the west's organizational style without making themselves vulnerable to a military coup, which (so far) they absolutely refuse to do.

[entropyneur]

When you try to predict dictators' behavior usong geopolitical arguments, you make the same mistake as the people who didn't believe in the Russian invasion into Ukraine. It's the internal politics that pushes dictators to attack. And China currently follows the Russia's curve exactly there.

[dmix]

> And China currently follows the Russia's curve exactly there.

I still think Xi Jinping fears his people far more than Putin ever did. There's a huge powerful class of people who made tons of money off global trade in China, not just a few token Oligarchs from the 1990s like in Russia. They are the worlds factory, with a love of money and success. A global conflict is not something their people would easily stomach. While Russians seem to revel in their ability to withstand poverty and backwards systems I'm skeptical the same cultural malaise exists in China, even if they have strong national character (on paper).

[topspin]

> The risk of China taking Taiwan by force, unprovoked, in the near future is vastly overblown, in my opinion.

I don't share this view. China needs only a couple more (2-3) carriers and to arm enough H-6K's with anti-ship missiles to keep US capital ships at bay and they'll have all the tools they need to blockade and conquer Taiwan, perhaps without firing a shot. All of that will be in place in only a couple years; probably before Trump's term ends.

[cn-watch]

This is a supremely bad take. Completely devoid of true understanding of the situation.

Satellite imagery exposed China's has new landing barges at the Guangzhou Shipyard. These barges, equipped with 120-meter-long bridges and stabilizing pylons to land troops and vehicles on Taiwan's rugged coastlines by creating mobile ports[1]

You don't build these things if you don't need them. they have no other use except invasion.

1. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/built...

[elihu]

> The Chinese are strategic and patient. They just need to wait a few more years until they are able to blockade the entire island for long period of time. Then they can potentially take the island without firing a single shot. they don’t need to take on this kind of risk right now.

...On the other hand, if they want to take Taiwan with a low probability of the U.S. intervening, it's hard to imagine a better time than right now.

One of the lessons Xi might have taken from Russia's war on Ukraine is that Putin made a tactical blunder by not invading during Trump's first term. Without the Biden administration's active support of Ukraine, Putin would likely have been more successful.

It's hard to guess probabilities on these sorts of things, but the current situation makes me uncomfortable.

(For what it's worth, the likelihood of a major Cascadia fault earthquake happening during the Trump administration is something that we can estimate the probability of, and even though it's not particularly high, it also makes me uncomfortable as an Oregonian.)

[spacebanana7]

There’s no harm for China to offer $2T for Trump’s permission to coercively take Taiwan by threat of blockade.

I can imagine Trump accepting that kind of deal, and it’s probably still cheaper than war for China.

[aucisson_masque]

Taiwan without American support is extremely easy for China to take.

There is absolutely no risk whatsoever.

Everyone noticed trump behavior with zelinsky, Chinese too. It might instead push up their agenda to conquer Taiwan quickly before trump mandate end, or at least fund him to put up with a third mandate.

Which is something he had been talking a lot.

[insane_dreamer]

The _continuous threat_ of China invading Taiwan benefits China more than _actually_ invading Taiwan, which, even if it could take it militarily, would have a very difficult time "maintaining the peace"--Taiwan is not HK.

[m3kw9]

Maybe it goes up 100% from 1% to 2% within the next 4 years

[rmk]

And what exactly is wrong with that? Asking for TSMC to be sold to Americans?

[jimmydoe]

Either they get the island, or they play good guy and sell more stuff everywhere bc everyone hates America more.

Trump loves speaking about cards, Xi is the guy holding all the cards, and keep you guessing.