[_t9ow]

> Now would be a great time for China to start an invasion

I'm not doubting at all that China has imperialistic designs on Taiwan and the South China Sea. But why would China invade, when its leaders can clearly see that Russia, through strategic patience, bribery, and aggressive hybrid warfare, has finally won the Cold War without ever having to invade the US militarily?

Bribery is rampant among high-ranking military officers in Taiwan, for example. Many of them have been exposed to have sold classified information to the Chinese government for trifling amounts of money. China has also managed to poach a lot of former TSMC engineers to work at SMIC by offering generous salaries. Why take military action against Taiwan today (or in 2027, according to the CIA [1]) when China just has to be very patient?

[1] And do we really trust the CIA, given how many times it has lied throughout its entire existence to justify starting/escalating wars?

[attentive]

the same could have been said about Ukraine, yet russia invaded

[_t9ow]

When Russia invaded, Trump wasn't the President quickly dragging the US into the realm of irrelevance, and back then it seemed very unlikely (even unimaginable) that Trump would be President again.

But everyone had too much faith in the Americans, and here we are.