[margalabargala]

Before solar panels become impossible to purchase, they will be difficult to purchase.

Before solar panels become difficult to purchase, they will become more expensive to purchase.

Mass produced solar panels have been getting both cheaper and easier to get. What you describe could happen, but it's far enough off that we have not seen even the first warning signs yet.

[lukan]

"What you describe could happen, but it's far enough off that we have not seen even the first warning signs yet."

Well, some disagree on there being no warning signs.

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/2025-statement/

[margalabargala]

Okay, sure, but that's no different than the same identical "warning signs" that people have been flipping out about since the 1960s.

Maybe some individual country will have some collapse, but all of human civilization will not.

I.maintain that if you're worried about any of that, you are still better off stockpiling panels now, than developing ways to make your own much worse ones in your backyard.

DIY photovoltaics can be a fun hobby but for someone worried about an actual collapse they can acquire a lifetime supply of solar panels and batteries for less money and time than setting up a custom fab that's able to operate in a collapse situation.

[lukan]

Is your argument because we have not had a nuclear war yet, we will never have one?

Can you elaborate? I would like to have your confidence ..

And in general setting up a solar panel fab is maybe not the best prepper action, but for the point of distributing critical techologies for a potential reconstruction, I do see the point.

There is individual survival and general progress of the species.

[margalabargala]

There's exactly one scenario that results in the actual technological collapse of our species, which is all out nuclear war between the US and Russia. Which with the current presidential administration, is possibly less likely than it's ever been; why would Russia nuke its newest ally?

The chances of a nuclear weapon being used somewhere right now tactically I think are quite high. Russia in Ukraine, or Israel in Iran (or someday soon Iran in Israel), or between India and Pakistan. But none of those are sufficient to bring us to a point where home manufacturing of solar panels becomes remotely worthwhile.

[adrianN]

I believe it's optimistic to think that that is the only scenario. Consider the problems we had during the pandemic, which was luckily just a minor blip as far as possible global disruptions go.

[lukan]

The problem is, except for the very first ones in Japan, there were never any nuclear weapons being used in a major war exactly for the unknown consequences of the other players.

It is all interconnected. If one nuke is used, then there will be many on the other side applying pressure to also use a nuke. And so on. I assume much more countries secretly have nukes and the frontlines are somewhat blurry. Meaning, at the moment I am also not too worried, but if a nuke is used it will be a very high gamble, that it will be just the only one.

[margalabargala]

Most countries definitely do not have nukes. There are a handful that could have them in secret, or that maintain the materials to make them immediately if needed. But all of those combined would amount to no more than a few dozen, small, nuclear weapons. There are not a thousand Tsar Bomba size nukes secreted away.

If the US and Russia stood down and the rest of the world let loose all of their nukes, it would be insufficient to cause sufficient damage to the technological integrity of our species such that backyard solar manufacture becomes viable.

[kragen]

Agreed. But one individual country makes 90% of the panels, and the others cost twice as much.

[margalabargala]

Okay, but again, it's a far cry from "the price doubles" to "make these in your backyard or you will not have them".

To make a good, efficient solar panel requires materials and equipment incompatible with backyard manufacture, especially in a collapse scenario.

It's a neat hobby, but if your goal is just "have solar panels", you are strictly better off buying them than making them.

[kragen]

Probably. But all of these questions are contingent on what has been invented so far.

[kragen]

Yeah, if some shithead nukes China, solar panels would get expensive in a hurry.