[_delirium]

Yes, there’s research showing that models’ self-assessment of probabilities (when you ask them via prompting) don’t even match the same models’ actual probabilities, in cases where you can measure the probabilities directly (e.g. by looking at the logits): https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.13264

[anon291]

Logits are not probabilities... at least not in the way you understand probability. Probabilities mathematically are anything that broadly behaves like a probability, whereas colloquially probabilities represent the likelihood or the preponderance of a particular phenomenon. Logits are not either of those.

[_delirium]

The probability of token generation is a function of the logits. Do you have an actual point related to the linked paper?

[anon291]

That is one way of sampling tokens. It is not the only way. Logits do not map neatly to belief, although it is convenient to behave as if they do