[Spooky23]

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year.

Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day.

Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medical practices of all kinds have consolidated into big regional networks that are interconnected. Many of them have cash flow challenges and the fucking around with Medicare/medicaid will drive some to insolvency. My one friend in the space is planning on 30% rif in some scenarios.

Be smart. Heads down at work and start unwinding your long positions and increasing cash holdings.

[YZF]

It's really hard to time selling and buying back even if you're right and a crash is imminent. On the other hand, other than the great depression, most crashes recover fairly quickly (a few years). If you're invested for the long term then likely moving to cash is the losing move. Cash also loses to inflation.

My take is make a few adjustments on the margins to make your gut happier. If you scored you're a little ahead of the index. If you messed up you're not far behind.

[Havoc]

NVIDIA has a massive backlog of datacenter orders. Don’t think they’re in any immediate danger of collapse

[red-iron-pine]

backlog orders esp ones with long waits, can be cancelled.

if a few other orgs make the same decision that Microsoft did -- no more AI data centers -- then their growth looks shakey

[iszomer]

Not unless their supply chain fucks up.

[rightbyte]

> the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater)

How bad is that compared to baseline? I mean in theory all new sold houses should be sold at 100% market value to the highest bidder, and thus unsellable at 100% of the price right away.

[lukev]

Just curious, what kind of Elon scandal do you think could move the needle at this point? Anyone capable and willing to observe his behavior has probably already acted on it.

What lines are left to cross?

[happymellon]

The needle has moved.

https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-loses-1-trillion-statu...

Stock is dropping, sales are falling, Elon is losing money with his antics.

[Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit]

It may not be obvious to you, but the protests are emboldening people.

https://electrek.co/2025/02/24/tesla-protests-gain-momentu-w...

Not sure where you are, but here in the UK sales might not have dropped as much as other European countries but there are definitely less Tesla's around, and the conversation is towards other EV makers because people don't want to fund him.

[ben_w]

> [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit]

Yes, but also that only takes the price back to early November, i.e. undoes the bubble from people thinking Trump affiliation would help.

Even after that, on the basis of the P/E ratio, I wouldn't be surprised by the share price dropping 90% from today, i.e. hovering around a price of $29/share.

That needle may yet move, but it's too soon to tell. I'd expect Musk to have an explict falling out with Trump first, not merely the current state of Trump having no interest in supporting EVs.

[happymellon]

Then I misunderstood.

I still expect further knocks if there are more protests, people believe it's making an impact (even if it's not) with the claims of closing stores.

And if the sabotage continues, then that would be an additional cost to Tesla to replace. I know I would feel skittish about holding stocks of a company that has a CEO who is actively reducing the size of their market.

And that's all separate from the potential Trump/Musk fallout. It could get very messy.

[ben_w]

> And that's all separate from the potential Trump/Musk fallout. It could get very messy.

Indeed.

The domestic fallout for being seen as Trump's enforcer, means the next Democrat government in the US will likely find ways to terminate most or all SpaceX contracts.

Well, unless Musk has a public falling out with Trump first.

But even then, he's already too much of a chaos monkey to be trusted with security clearence for anything (including by Trump, but Trump hasn't noticed that yet).

The international fallout for being seen by international governments… best not to speculate, but there's no fundamental upper bound when it comes to actions by governments who consider him to be a threat to their interests.

[dumbledoren]

Except all the stocks are crashing. Not just Tesla.

[happymellon]

IBM hasn't.

Apple hasn't.

Meta is still up on the month.

What are "all stocks"?

[dumbledoren]

And by today they are...

[happymellon]

IBM is still up on the month, and the 3 month.

Apple is still up on the month and the 3 month.

Apple may have dropped a bit, and I note that IBM still haven't dropped at all, but Tesla are down 25% on the month and down 15% on the 3 month.

Tesla are still performing far worse than anyone else by a wide margin by being below their previous position.

Unless by everyone crashing you mean up?

[Spooky23]

The markets haven’t digested the real state of affairs at the company.

Tesla is worth $30/share. It’s valued based on the Elon cult of personality. That’s already weakening — two years ago my previous post would have been brigaded into oblivion by Elon fans.

He’s the henchman of the most powerful man in earth at the moment, who’s infamous for betraying his henchman. There’s no bottom - literally anything could happen at any time.

[wodenokoto]

I think it is a good point, but the guy can still get a heart attack.

[hedora]

He could fall out of favor with Trump, or the market could conclude that Tesla’s being sacrificed at the altar in exchange for pork barrel spending on spacex and twitter.