[nexus_six]

It's not early. It has reached a plateau. Are there betting odds for "AI" (LLM) benchmarks somewhere? I will bet money

[tombert]

Reaching a plateau doesn't imply that it's not early. It's still entirely plausible that we come up with a newer better model in ten years that gives us true AGI or runs on cheaper hardware or just gives us a closer approximation to human reasoning.

[razcle]

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-...

[nexus_six]

Is there a paid market? This seems to be "play money" or "play points". I can't find anything like Polymarket with similar contracts.