[fred_is_fred]

I didn't even consider that different parts of the planet may be more or less likely to be hit. Are most of these dangerous asteroids in the normal orbital plane or could something come straight down onto the North Pole from 90 degrees? I assume yes possible, but much less likely.

All in all though it is extremely complex.

[defrost]

If you're interested in such things you might enjoy joining your local chapter of the Global Fireball Observatory, an expansion of the original Desert Fireball Network.

https://gfo.rocks/partners.html https://dfn.gfo.rocks/

They've got camera kits, forums, data, nerds, actual recovered rocks, . . .