[wg0]

In fact they are totally dismantling OpenAI. Most likely, without any intention on their part.

LLMs have been more legitimate "blockchain" when most CIO magazines had these essays with "What's your blockchain strategy?" kind of stuffed material.

AI bubble will burst and will burst hard. By end of 2026 at max.

[sebzim4500]

Doesn't OpenAI have like 400M weekly active users now?

[FergusArgyll]

Is that app/website or API or both?

[sohzm]

seems like app/website

> chatgpt recently crossed 400M WAU, we feel very fortunate to serve 5% of the world every week, 2M+ business users now use chatgpt at work, and reasoning model API use is up 5x since o3 mini launch

link: https://x.com/bradlightcap/status/1892579908179882057

[mark_l_watson]

I mostly agree with you. Google has a good strategy of driving down costs, for example. I am amazed by the large number of API providers who host either the original DeepSeek R1 or a distilled version.

When cost approaches zero, use cases increase exponentially.

[thenaturalist]

> Most likely, without any intention on their part.

I think this is a very, very naive assumption.

The founder is a quant with involvements in domestic investments and market design and pricing for decades - in China.

As seen with the case of Jack Ma, after you cross a certain level, there is no such thing as "not involved with politics" in China.

Liang knows exactly what he's doing.

> During 2021, Liang started buying thousands of Nvidia GPUs for his AI side project while running High-Flyer. Some industry insiders viewed it as the eccentric actions of a billionaire looking for a new hobby. One of Liang's business partners said they initially did not take Liang seriously and described their first meeting as seeing a very nerdy guy with a terrible hairstyle who could not articulate his vision. Liang simply said he wanted to build something and it will be a game changer which his business partners thought was only possible from giants such as ByteDance and Alibaba Group.

> During that month in an interview with 36Kr, Liang stated that High-Flyer had acquired 10,000 Nvidia A100 GPUs before the US government imposed AI chip restrictions on China.

> On 20 January 2025, Liang was invited to the Symposium with Experts, Entrepreneurs and Representatives from the Fields of Education, Science, Culture, Health and Sports (专家、企业家和教科文卫体等领域代表座谈会) hosted by Premier Li Qiang in Beijing. Liang, being considered as an industry expert, was asked to provide opinions and suggestions on a draft for comments of the annual 2024 government work report.

> On 17 February 2025, Liang along with the heads of other Chinese technology companies attended a symposium hosted by President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Whether he intended to or not initially, what happens with DeepSeek is now out of this man's hand and will be 100% influenced by politics.

The chip bans and dual use nature of the technology have catapulted Liang to the first row of CCP tech strategists' attention, for sure.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liang_Wenfeng

[Rodmine]

I know that Americans are the saints and everyone else is evil… everyone else being gentiles and all. But other than that, is there any other point you are trying to make?

[lugu]

I am not sure what you mean by AI bubble. Do you mean the valuation of some companies? Or course some won't do well in the future. In the meanty, a significant part of the population uses on it to accelerate their tasks (be it admin work, legal question, learning, getting inspiration). There is no way back. It feels like saying the video streaming bubble will burst in 2020. No. It is too valuable. But yes, some player will die. Nothing special here. IMHO.

[alternatex]

A bubble bursting does not mean the industry in the bubble ceases to exist. It means the market hype dies down and only the things that have actual value survive. When it comes to AI, realistically most of the hype is fluff, so calling it a bubble is fair.

[mdjt]

I mean the whole world still uses the Internet after the dot-com bubble burst. A significant amount of “AI companies” are valued with revenue multipliers never used before. 44x in the case of OpenAI for example. I agree there is no going back, but this bubble will burst, and hard. IMHO.