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by regularfry 483 days ago
I think the haste is probably down to a risk calculation. If practical quantum breaks of classical crypto don't materialise in the next 5-10 years, "all" that's happened is we've cycled onto a new cypher suite sooner than we otherwise would have.

The reverse picture, where they do and we haven't, is so colossally damaging that it doesn't matter if the probability of quantum breaks landing is actually quite small. In expected value terms we still come out ahead.

You don't need to assume that someone in an NSA lab has already demonstrated it for this to work out, and you don't need to assume that there is ever a practical quantum computer deployed for this stuff. All you need is for the probability to be above some small threshold (1%? 5%? I could believe something in that range) to make running for the exits the right move today.
2 comments
Avamander 483 days ago
How does the calculation look like if the thing we migrate to ends up being broken way easier than classical algorithms?

Because the current plans aren't to migrate to just hybrid classical+PQC schemes, the plans are to migrate to PQC fully. Discarding both RSA and ECC.

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adgjlsfhk1 483 days ago
> Because the current plans aren't to migrate to just hybrid classical+PQC schemes, the plans are to migrate to PQC fully. Discarding both RSA and ECC.

This isn't true. NIST has been saying that, but everyone else just laughs and implements hybrid since throwing out RSA/ECC is so obviously stupid.

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JoachimS 482 days ago
If you have references to nations, governments that state that transition to hybrid I would love to get references. The EU transition will not be hybrid. The NSA plan is not hybrid. ETSI is not hybrid.

My view is that IETF and commercial entities such as Apple, Google and open source world are the ones going hybrid. In this case I would love to be wrong.

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Avamander 483 days ago
> NIST has been saying that, but everyone else just laughs and implements hybrid since throwing out RSA/ECC is so obviously stupid.

The Australian government is also saying this.

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JoachimS 482 days ago
That is a very relevant point. Add a bit of scare mongering, herd mentality and downplaying of the technical effects, risks, you get the ones setting policies taking a decision to transition - just like everybody else.
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