[bigbones]

the IP rights holders have yet to bare their teeth. I don't think the outcome you suggest is clear at all, in fact I think if anything entirely the opposite is the most probable outcome. I've lost count of the number of technology epochs that at the time were either silently or explicitly dependent on ignoring the warez aspects while being blinded by the possibilities, Internet video, music and film all went through this phase. GPTs are just a new medium, and by the end of it royalties will in all likelihood still end up being paid to roughly the same set of folk as before

I quite like the idea of a future where the AI job holocaust largely never happened because license costs ate up most of the innovation benefit. It's just the kind of regressive greed that keeps the world ticking along and wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with something very close to this

[beeflet]

Good historical comparison, but I doubt it this time because there is plausible deniability that a model wasn't trained on a given piece of data.

Also, the pool of public domain data is always increasing, so the AI will eventually win in any case, even if we have to wait 100 years

[bigbones]

As I recall it, there was a time when copyright infringement on YouTube was so prolific that the rightsholders essentially forced creation of the first watermarking system that worked at massive scale. I do wonder if any corners of research are currently studying the attribution problem with the specific lens of licensing as its motivation

[beeflet]

Yeah that was the old Viacom vs Youtube days. Here is a great video if you have half an hour to spare: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV2h_KGno9w . Pretty funny court case where it turns out viacom was violating their OWN copyright... set a massive precedent.

But one thing this reminds me of is the idea of a "trap street", something mapmakers used to do was put in false locations on their maps to prove that other mapmakers were copying them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trap_street . I figure you could do something similarly adversarial with AI to pollute the public training data on the internet. IDK like adversarial attacks on image classifiers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOZw1tgD8dA . With an LLM you could try to make them into a manchurian candidate.

[kragen]

An environment where royalties inflate the pricing of ChatGPT by orders of magnitude seems like an environment where hosted models would be at a big disadvantage against whatever you can manage to get running on a pile of Macs in your garage.

[tiahura]

If your business model depends on the Roberts’ court kneecapping AI, pivot.

[Ray20]

>I quite like the idea of a future where the AI job holocaust largely never happened because license costs ate up most of the innovation benefit.

Not quite realistic. You are talking about very huge benefits, in favor of which licenses will be abandoned. And who don't abandoned them... I mean you can look at the Amish settlements.

[bigbones]

I'd put solid money on Warner earning a few cents every time an AI girlfriend somewhere sings happy birthday within 10 years