[ammario]

Cool to see. I'm currently #1 on the Kalshi volume leaderboard (https://kalshi.com/social/leaderboard) with a proprietary market making algorithm.

There is plenty of money to be made on Kalshi, but I had to rethink the math from the ground up as most of the literature describes highly liquid, somewhat stable markets.

One small change you could make to your algorithm is to calculate the skews/spreads in log-odds space. A change in price from 50c to 49c represents a very small delta in expected return whereas 2c to 1c is a doubling. Dealing with probability contracts in log-odds controls for this effect.

[andes314]

That's awesome! Yes, not being able to place fractional cent costs makes the problem unique relative to other markets.

I will give this a shot! And if you would be willing to collaborate, please shoot me an email.

[ammario]

Unfortunately collaboration here would kill my alpha ;)

[seizethecheese]

Is volume going up?

[ammario]

I've been recording every trade across the platform for the past 3 months, which is when I began my operation.

Median Daily Volume (M$)

Dec 2024 - 10.2

Jan 2025 - 5.04

Feb 2025 - 5.89

So, in short, my data is inconclusive. I've been impressed with their marketing and business development though. They seem to be cozy with the new administration and I imagine any headwinds they had from the CFTC are disappearing.

[seizethecheese]

That February number is quite promising! Thanks.