[alephnerd]

> So I hope you are correct (or, more importantly, that your opinion is shared by decision makers)

Yep. I'm basing my stance on Poland's current defense strategy [0][1].

Furthermore, Poland's on track to outcompete Russia in rocket artillery and tanks, so it has day 1 capabilities that are comparable to a tactical nuclear strike minus the cost.

> No, because it's not symmetric

Yep. It isn't symmetric, but it doesn't matter, because crossing the nuclear launch threshold is enough to justify retaliatory strikes and counter-strikes - which is something a state which lacks a second strike or nuclear triad cannot deter against.

And the Kargil War in 1999 was proof enough that two states having nuclear weapons capabilities alone cannot deter a war.

[0] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10736700.2020.1...

[1] - https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--m...