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by cbg0 485 days ago
> Has the rest of the democratic world been making plans to reduce reliance on the US since the first Trump administration?

Plans were already being drafted before Trump won the election, given his strong polling, but bureaucracy makes things move a little slow. I think it has united EU countries who understand that this over-reliance on the US can be problematic given how quickly policies can shift, and will lead to a stronger EU.

The NATO framework is there and all countries part of it can keep following it to work together even without the US, and regardless of the memes, EU countries have a very advanced arsenal and lots of trained military personnel - with Russia struggling against one country, it's hard to believe they can ever make a move against 27 EU states, especially due to historical bad blood between many of them and Russia, which only serve to amplify the desire to stand up against them.

> Will this term be the end of the craziness or is this the end of the US as a super power?

I think it's a correction we've been due for a while, especially with the rise in extremist parties in recent years all across the world. Whether things will reseat themselves smoothly or whether we'll be in for a rough ride, it's hard to say.

If the current trend keeps going in the next few years with the US becoming more isolationist, I think it will be almost impossible for them to comeback to being a superpower even with a future president that wants to do a 180, as it takes more than nukes to be a superpower.

1 comments

My fear is not that Russia and allies will fight a giant land war with all of Europe. It is that Putin will continue moving his lukachenko and viktor orban pieces and acquire new ones through out Europe that will effectively make Europe reliant on russia and in some ways controlled by Russia. They don’t need to own everything to control everything.
This push has been ongoing for year and the success has definitely been less than expected, with Finland and Sweden joining NATO. I think with the Americans stepping back, this will only strengthen ties between EU countries, though there still are issues which have to be solved on the energy sector to reduce reliance on Russia.
People only look at the state of Ukraine and think that because Russia didn't steam roll them things aren't working. I feel like it is quite successful. The previous status quo has been disrupted. America has gone crazy and retreated from Europe. This followed Brexit. And Russia has been successful at stealing Ukrainian resources, for example, Bellingcat was able to track approximately 3 billion dollars in stolen grain sales that Russia sold to places like Egypt. Is that how we want the world to work? You can take what you want by force and then sell it to the highest bidder? And now America pushes for Ukraine to give up lands? Do we believe it's okay to attack your neighbors to steal their stuff? Why is any of this acceptable? It is not a negotiation to say, "what is yours is now mine but I will give back some of it if you stop trying to fight to keep all of it."
But do not underestimate the threat from certain pro-russian political parties in many EU countries. This is not the end of the development, yet.