[s1artibartfast]

Robert Wright has been making the related observation that chip export controls to China are making the invasion of Taiwan much more likely.

In a world where TSMC supplied China, at least the PRC would suffer economically from the US/ROC bombing the fabs. With the PRC forced to mainland its own fabs, that leverage goes away.

[gscott]

Except that the Taiwan machines can be turned off remotely by the manufacturer.

[s1artibartfast]

I don't see how that matters. Bomb them or turn them off, it is only acts as a disincentive for China if they are reliant on Taiwanese chips.

Forcing China to develop domestic production makes invasion more likely.

[gscott]

China gets around the sanctions by having non sanctioned Chinese companies buy the machines, setup across the street from the sanctioned company and the send wafers back and forth using a conveyor belt over the street. The sanctions are more of a bump in the road then a full halt.