[coliveira]

The problem for TSMC is that they're in a weak position. They cut themselves from China, so what other options they have other than do what the US wants? A smart person could see this result from a mile ahead, first with Biden's insistence that it set plants in the US. The whole idea was always the forced IP transfer to US companies.

[richardw]

They’re very exposed and the only way Taiwan independence survives is by keeping IP and skills locked up on the island. What you can bet on is if Intel had the goods, Trump would say “meh, let’s deal” to China. Compared to that, what cost is a tariff or two?

If I were Taiwan, I’d say “give us nukes and a couple subs, then you get our best factories”. The US nuclear umbrella is now less of a guarantee and countries need to own their security.

[coliveira]

Taiwan should learn a lesson from Ukraine. It makes no sense to go to war against a neighboring nation trusting on support from people thousands of miles away. Do any deals locally, that's the best way to survive.

[variaga]

Ukraine did not go to war, Russia went to war, and Ukraine had a "local" deal with Russia (in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes, Russia promised to honor their territorial integrity), Russia simply refused to honor their half of the deal.

[FpUser]

The initial deal as I remember was with Russia, US and UK. And the deal was a memoranda which is not even binding and does not compel any real actions in case of breach. Basically Ukraine had acted as a fool.

Immediately after break up from USSR they had 50+ million population, strong army, industry, tech, great location as a transit hub, agriculture, resources etc. and their fucking corrupt "leaders" pissed it all away an had turned their country into an easy prey and a shadow of its former self.