[netcan]

> On the other hand, if TSMC rejects the proposals, the U.S. government could impose a 100% tariff on chips made in Taiwan.

Seems like a bluff... at least taken literally. Is the US really going to put a 100% tax on the core component of the computing industry?

If this actually played out it would be pretty bad for the US economy.

I suppose the unstated implication us that the US could just take the IP by force.

[bradchris]

> I supposed the unstated implication is that the US could just take the IP by force

Isn’t that what China’s stated plan is?

[aprentic]

They're extremely careful not to state that as their plan.

In general, they make a huge effort not to talk about their plans vis-a-vis Taiwan at all. They just keep repeating that Taiwan is part of China.

The closest they come to stating that they plan to use force is that they'll sometimes say that they won't reject the use of force.

Given that nobody has proposed a scenario where China actually could do something like "take the IP by force" (since the IP would be gone if they ever tried to invade) and we can generally see that the Chinese leaders aren't complete idiots, it seems highly unlikely that they're planning an invasion any time soon.

[dageshi]

If all it costs them were never having access to those chips again the chinese would've taken Taiwan already.

The chinese want to invade Taiwan because they think it's a rebel province, their only consideration is whether the US will oppose them militarily if they do.

[aprentic]

It's clearly not just about the chips. China didn't attack Taiwan before 1987, when TSMC was founded.

There are many disincentives. The biggest one is that China is confident that they'll get full control of Taiwan without violence.

They believe that the US is in a state of terminal decline and Europe will never overcome centuries of infighting. A significant portion of the population of Taiwan wants to reunify. They fully expect that they can just continue to nurture supporters within Taiwan and wait out the West and Taiwan will just fall into their lap.

Why would they go to war when they think they can get everything they want without war?

[palmotea]

> The chinese want to invade Taiwan because they think it's a rebel province, their only consideration is whether the US will oppose them militarily if they do.

IIRC, the US's wargaming shows that if it tries to intervene, it will lose. Taiwan is too far from the US and too close to China.

[aprentic]

Exactly.

The US has unrivaled force projection capabilities; half the worlds carrier fleets, the largest navy by tonnage, and the technology to execute unprecedented combined arms maneuvers.

China has insane defense-in-depth; more missiles than you can shake a stick at, the largest navy by number of ships, a vast arsenal of countermeasures, and a 4:1 population advantage.

China can't stand toe-to-toe with the US anywhere except the immediate vicinity of China. In that vicinity, nobody can get close if China doesn't want them to.

[palmotea]

> China can't stand toe-to-toe with the US anywhere except the immediate vicinity of China. In that vicinity, nobody can get close if China doesn't want them to.

I think you have a typo there.

Personally, I think if the US wants to defend Taiwan from invasion, it needs to stock them up with a massive amounts of missile/artillery/whatever systems and ammunition, and that needs to be distributed all over the island so there's no concentrated stockpile to attack.

But the US cupboard is bare, and Ukraine made it barer. IIRC, in an all-out war the US itself will run out of missiles in a few days or weeks, and lacks the capacity to replenish them at a reasonable rate.

[newsclues]

If the US bluff is give us what we want or we pull our security guarantee and China invades and you are forced to blow the fabs and move your engineers.

That hurts the US access to chips, short term. But then who is going to fill the demand and where will the talent migrate, and who else is going to build the capacity ($$$)?

[gwervc]

The US revealing its true face (the fact it was no allies, only vassals) and trying to bully Taiwan into giving up its most precious economic could be something that help China in the long run. I mean, given two bullies, why try to appease the distant and foreign one, instead of the one with cultural and linguistic ties? Seems an incredibly short-sighted move from Taiwan, but it's good that more people see its true colors. Taiwan should try to gain more protection from Japan.

[netcan]

IDK... if a profitable market is up for grabs, $$$s are not a problem. The financial system is quite comfortable fronting cash for factories making in-demand products.

Have people suddenly forgotten that markets and enterprises exist, and are quite good at making products. Chips are not minerals. The state department isn't a tool for this job.

In any case, TSMC is currently within the US sphere. Nvidia makes most of the capital gains. US government gets to deny China. US companies get good chips. Where's the upside in blowing all this up?

Perhaps pulling the security guarantee and greenlighting reunification under PRC is the destination, and onshoaring Taiwan's critical industries is deemed prudent in advance of this.

[rasz]

At some point being assimilated by China starts to look like a good option. Why blow up fabs if you join willingly, and then its China who is blocking US from buying chips made on latest nodes.

[outside1234]

I mean, we have a total moron as a leader, so I wouldn't rule out totally insane things like a 100% tax.