| > In what sense is half a percent of territorial gain for 400 000 casualties "beating" anyone? It is textbook Pyrrhic victory. Maybe gaining territory was not really the objective, maybe not all territory is considered equal. Also they gained 20% of Ukraine along with some of it's population, if they gained more than 400 000(or whatever the actual number is) people, then the exchange was profitable. It would have been interesting to see how many people would the US have been willing to sacrifice had the Cuban Missile Crisis would not have been averted. > Russia has no armour left to exploit breakthroughs They might be fighting with clubs, slingshots and shovels, but they are still gaining ground, so either this is not true, or the Russians are so good that they don't need armour. Since I have seen Ukrainian videos with recent dates that show columns of Russian armour, I would say that it's probably not true. > territorial gains have stalled They have actually accelerated, remember how long Bakhmut lasted? Now they are speedrunning it, they capture something militarily important almost every month. > no end in sight There is: Ukraine wants to recruit 18 year olds, clearly they are at the end of their rope. > being stuck in unwinnable war like this is a nightmare scenario They can freeze the conflict whenever they want, the Russians don't want to because they feel that they have the initiative, that's why it's so difficult to negotiate with them. > abandoned village in rural Ukraine In military context small villages can have significant importance. Landfills can be incredibly important as well even though they don't have much intrinsic value. > exchange tens of thousands of lives Maybe that's a win for them, maybe they just want to erase military power and even if their exchanges are less efficient it might still be worth it for them because they can absorb the higher cost in lives due to their larger population. I do believe that because the Russians are more numerous and have their own military industry, it's the Ukrainians that suffer more casualties, however it doesn't matter because if it meets their objective, it's a victory. |
They have not. In the first 30 days of the war, Russia captured some 22% of Ukraine. Successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in 2022 reduced this to 17-18%. In 2023 and 2024, Russia failed to regain its foothold and still occupies less than at the end of the first month of the war. All while monthly casualties have risen to the highest they've ever been.
The figures I mentioned - half a percent of territory, 400 000+ casualties - are for 2024 alone. All Russians have to show for such insane losses are militarily super-duper-important landfills, as you put it.
For a country with an aging society and already one of the lowest birth rates in the world, this is pure suicide. They will literally run out of young men before reaching Kyiv. The most cynical people in Washington must be real pleased with the way the war is going. Russia is losing people and permanently crippling itself, while the US population has grown by almost 100 million in the last 30 years.