[timewizard]

> At this point I feel like a rising stock price after a crisis should be a major red flag for long term corporate survival.

It depends. If you see a lot of insider buying after a bottom it can be a good sign that there's strong internal faith in the companies future. I've used it as a buy signal myself before when a market cap is high enough. It has paid off.

> it is not clear to me that anyone could know what a long term winning play looked like 10-15 years ago

Well it probably _wasn't_ partnering with a Chinese state company to try to expand the brand there. That was a poison pill.