| The problem is that such a conclusion is not stable We could decide this one minute, and the next minute it will be UN-decided There is no "global world order", no global authority -- it is a shifting balance of power --- A more likely situation is that the things AI can't do will increase in value. Put another way, the COMPLEMENTS to AI will increase in value. One big example is things that exist in the physical world -- construction, repair, in-person service like restaurants and hotels, live events like sports and music (see all the ticket prices going up), mining and drilling, electric power, building data centers, manufacturing, etc. Take self-driving cars vs. LLMs. The thing people were surprised by is that the self-driving hype came first, and died first -- likely because it requires near perfect reliability in the physical world. AI isn't good at that LLMs came later, but had more commercial appeal, because they don't have to deal with the physical world, or be reliable So there are are still going to many domains of WORK that AI can't touch. But it just may not be the things that you or I are good at :) --- The world changes -- there is never going to be some final decision of "humans don't have to work" Work will still need to be done -- just different kinds of work. I would say that a lot of knowledge work is in the form of "bullshit jobs" [1] In fact a reliable test of a "bullshit job" might be how much of it can be done by an LLM So it might be time for the money and reward to shift back to people who accomplish things in the physical world! Or maybe even the social world. I imagine that in-person sales will become more valuable too. The more people converse with LLMs, I think the more they will cherish the experience of conversing with a real person! Even if it's a sales call lol [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs |
Early on in AV cycles there was enormous hype for AVs, akin to LLMs. We thought truck drivers were done for. We thought accidents were a thing of the past. It kicked off a similar panic among tangential fields. Small AV startups were everywhere, and folks were selling their company to go start a new one then sell that company for enormous wealth gains. Yet 5 years later none of the "level 5" promises they made were coming true.
In hindsight, as you say, it was obvious. But it sure tarnished the CEO prediction record a bit, don't you think? It's just hard to believe that this time is different.