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by baq 492 days ago
Humans are notoriously bad at extrapolating exponentials.
1 comments
aleph_minus_one 492 days ago
... and many people who make this claim are notoriously prone to extrapolating exponential trends into a far longer future than the exponential trend model is suitable for.

Addendum: Extrapolating exponentials is actually very easy for humans: just plot the y axis on a logarithmic scale and draw a "plausible looking line" in the diagram. :-)

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baq 492 days ago
ah the 'everything is linear on a log-log plot when drawn with a fat marker' argument :)
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thijson 492 days ago
In the Dune universe the AI's are banned.
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