Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by yodsanklai 496 days ago
> The traditional auto industry would have never embraced EVs to the extent they have if someone did not disrupt the market in a way like Tesla did.

This isn't clear to me. Maybe in the US? but in Europe, there should be no new CO2-emitting cars by 2035. There's a global trend to move to EV due to climate change that has little to do with Tesla.
1 comments
slg 496 days ago
You are pointing to a disrupted market as evidence that the market didn't need to be disrupted. A quick search suggest that EU ban on CO2-emitting cars was from 2022, 5 years after Tesla started selling the Model 3. The global trend toward EVs was largely started by Tesla showing that EVs were a viable product with real demand.
link
yodsanklai 496 days ago
I don't think this is correct. See this article from July 2017 [1] Banning petrol cars was already discussed, it mentioned many car constructors, but not mention of Tesla. At that time, 27,903 Tesla cars were sold in Europe [2], so the market wasn't disrupted at all.

> France will end sales of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 as part of an ambitious plan to meet its targets under the Paris climate accord, Emmanuel Macron’s government has announced.

> The Netherlands has mooted a 2025 ban for diesel and petrol cars, and some federal states in Germany are keen on a 2030 phase-out.

> India, where scores of cities are blighted by dangerous air pollution, is mulling the idea of no longer selling petrol or diesel cars by 2030, and said it wants to introduce electric cars in “a very big way”.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/06/france-ban-...

[2] https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-europe-sales-figures/

link
slg 496 days ago
That July 2017 article you linked cites Volvo committing to switch their fleet to all electrics and hybrids. If you click on that hyperlink you will find this paragraph:

>Of Elon Musk’s Tesla, whose ‘mass market’ Model 3 is expected to roll off the production line later this week, Samuelsson [Volvo's chief executive] said: “It’s a tough competitor. But with this decision we are really becoming the second premium car maker in the world which will also be all-electrified.”

The EU followed France. France followed Volvo. Volvo followed Tesla. Tesla was the spark.

link
inerte 496 days ago
I would say US government and more specifically California was the spark, and the hundreds of millions of dollars given to start this industry.

I am all for it, he took advantage of a program specifically created to be taken advantage of. But I am not sure if it wasn't for the the tax related benefits, carbon emission credits, and the damn HOV lane access Tesla would be here.

But again, amazing! The goal was achieved.

link
yodsanklai 496 days ago
The spark was the Paris agreement and Europe pledging to reduce their CO2 emissions. EVs were already a common sight in France way before Tesla.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_F...

I think your narrative is correct in the US, but not in the rest of the world.

link
boringg 496 days ago
No France didn’t have meaningful ev traction. California and Tesla pushed out the market for EVs. Paris agreement helped Im sure but Tesla really did bring the EV market muscle - its undeniable.

EVs have been around since the 90s but there was a collective effort to restrict their growth and production.

link
slg 496 days ago
>EVs were already a common sight in France way before Tesla.

I can't say I'm an expert on French automotive sales. It is possible they have always had a small market for EVs going back years, but there clearly was an inflection point that occurred after Tesla had proved there was widespread demand for EVs with 2020 being the first year that EVs made up more than 2% of new car sales in France.[1]

[1] - https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/france-keeping-p...

link
scarface_74 496 days ago
Is 2% what we call “widespread demand” these days?
link
scarface_74 496 days ago
Okay and the GUI was started by Apple as far as PCs. Where did that leave Apple as far as the PC market compared to Microsoft?

And “disruption” doesn’t mean whet you think it means. Were any of the existing car manufacturers ever threatened by Tesla as far as market share and revenue like what happened to RIM and Nokia in the smart phone space?

link
slg 496 days ago
>Were any of the existing car manufacturers ever threatened by Tesla

Yes, that is why almost all of them started heavily investing in EVs after Tesla proved they were a viable product. You seem to believe that "disruption" can only come from wild financial success. All it means in this context is that they blazed a new trail for others established players to follow.

link
scarface_74 496 days ago
Actually they are backing off from EVs

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/03/13/ev-euphoria-is-dead-auto...

> You seem to believe that "disruption" can only come from wild financial success. All it means in this context is that they blazed a new trail for others established players to follow.

That’s not at all what “disruption” means according to “The Innovator’s Dilemma”.

https://duartem.medium.com/summary-of-the-innovators-dilemma...

Also look at “low end disruption” a “sustaining innovation”, “over serving the market”.

Most people who talk about disruption have never read Clay’s books.

link