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by andyjohnson0
492 days ago
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My current thinking for 2028/29: - 20% likelihood of no election at all - 70% "managed democracy" with outcome decided in advance - 10% normal transfer of power if Trump or his successor loses I think they're racing against the mid-terms next year. If they can lock it in by then then they're home free. (disclosure: Brit not USian) |
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This is the race. Historically the party in power loses the mid-terms, and I think we're already seeing huge portions of the population having buyers remorse. But, Trumps team knows this. I was waiting for them to attack the FEC, and here we are.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/us/politics/federal-elect...