[computerthings]

What you're not mentioning the personal and intellectual flaws of these idols and their followers, and the tens, if not hundreds of millions of people in the US, and billions all over the world. How the chances "seem" right now is rather moot and very likely to be wrong one way or another; historians can say that later on. It is what it is now. It's not like you're suggesting to invest energy into A rather than B, so instead of idly musing about chances of success, try to focus on what increases them.