[673dfddnd]

No technical moat, no money moat. Anybody can get to SOTA AI fastly, with reasonable money (no U$S 500B datacenters, no 5 to 10B cash in the bank required), just like anybody could develop the next TikTok or Instagram.

The most important thing is that new hardware is most probably demonstrated now NOT to be able to add any significant moat for future frontier models. If you own or have access to relatively old GPU datacenter level hardware (like the ones offered in many public clouds and/or private offerings -think old crypto farms pivoting - everywhere), you should be good provided to develop frontier models in a snap (2-3 months), from the scratch.

There's quite new thing, distillitation of models that can be done using R1, and now you could train a relatively week model -not yet frontier - but you could upgrade the thing right to the SOTA level - right now o3 probably - just distilling it with a R1 reasoner. This changes the game because you already have lots of advanced publicly downloadable models, plus whatever you can train, then you can now just begin to distill stuff seriously improving intelligence in those, it is so new that we have yet to see how it develops in the next weeks, months.