[bgnn]

That's definitely reading the situation totally wrong.

This so called arms race is only in western minds. It would be stupid to not think about this possibility and its consequences of course but this is the most illogical option by China.

The best option would be to advance their own semiconductor tech beyond TSMC and make it irrelevant, which so far is the course of action they are taking (alas only because they are forced by US).

Expanding on why capturing Taiwan is stupid: TSMC already has fabs and people with knowhow outside Taiwan. The fab assets are not as strategicly valuable as their knowhow. Plus, even if you acquire the knowhow, there's the supply chain: ASML, others, ASML's supply chain.

I think US might force ASML and TSMC to move to US in the coming years even stronger but more than that this arms race isn't getting hot.

[4gotunameagain]

There's no way the EU will allow US to force ASML to move to the US, especially given the burning of the bridges of decades of diplomacy by the incumbent president.

If the trade war continues and escalates, which form our current perspective it looks like it will, the EU will not lose one of its greatest assets in that space.

The idea of Trump that the US is powerful enough to strong arm everyone to his will is mistaken, an alienated US without its allies will suffer, as will the rest of the world..

[soco]

But fixing that will be a job for the next CEO, I mean next president.

[psytrancefan]

Totally agree. It is really in both sides interest to make TSMC irrelevant in Taiwan and avoid WW3.

So we will have a cold war, trade war and saber rattling until that time.

Then when the chips don't matter someday Taiwan will become old news to western minds like Iraq is today. When China takes Taiwan it will barely be a western news story because right now will feel so long in the past.

[verdverm]

The CCP doesn't want Taiwan for the chips, they want it because having a successful democracy of ethnic Chinese off the shore means there are viable alternatives to communist rule, by and for Chinese people.

[WiSaGaN]

What if I told you most Chinese people really are more eager than the "CCP" to take over Taiwan?

[willvarfar]

In the same way that Russians want to "take over" Ukraine or Argentinians want to "take over" The Falklands or Americans want to "take over" Greenland?

Territorial expansion is always popular with the masses before the shooting starts.

It is more nationalistic than political; in fact, many unpopular politicians start wars in order to get a sense of national unity and tamp down unrest at home.

[vinay427]

I’m not sure Greenland should be lumped in with the others considering the very different (lack of) history, and polling does not support its popularity.

> A strong majority of Americans, 66%, are opposed to U.S. territorial expansion accomplished “by invading other countries and territories,” according to a recent poll from More in Common.

> In contrast, just 13% support the U.S. launching an invasion to acquire territory, and 16% were not sure

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/artic...

[suraci]

why you mixed [Argentinians want to "take over" The Falklands] between [Russians want to "take over" Ukraine] and [Americans want to "take over" Greenland]

is it because of nationalism?

[willvarfar]

Yes, I was using them as examples of popularist nationalism.