[PeterStuer]

Please substantiate your claims. I am not 'cheering'. I am 100% prepared to be converted.

As I see it that debt counter is compounding fast, and with BRICS gaining steam your abilities to keep shoving it onto the rest of the planet are diminishing.

[czzr]

The US has debt denominated in its own currency, a large and growing economy, vast natural and human resources, no prospect of a foreign invasion and debt declining relative to GDP the last few years (this last point is not even that important but just for the record).

I can’t even begin to tell you how far the US is from hyperinflation or any major debt issues - the only real risk the US faces is internal stupidity (I don’t only mean the current situation, idiocies like the ongoing debt ceiling nonsense apply too).

Look, prudence is not a bad thing, and it’s worthwhile to have sensible management. But talk of hyperinflation is either severe mis-calibration of risks, deep misunderstanding of how economies work, or intentional propaganda.

[amrocha]

You’re the one making extraordinary claims, you’re the one that has to substantiate them.

What do you think is more likely, that you’re an economic genius and you can see an impending crisis that 50 years worth of economists couldn’t, and that somehow that crisis is going to happen in the next few years? Or maybe you don’t actually understand how macro economics works and have been manipulated into thinking this way by your inherent dislike of government spending?

[roenxi]

It is worth remembering that the inflation rate is always a policy choice - it is impossible to have hyperinflation without someone running a printing press at high speeds. So when you say "on the brink of hyperinflation" what you are implying is the Fed are considering adopting hyperinflation as a policy. That is unlikely; everyone knows how hyperinflations end and they are unlikely to just randomly adopt a policy known to be disastrous. Even if pressured by something big like the collapse of the US dollar or the US being in a position where no-one will buy their debt at an interest rate they can handle.

If the US has a problem, it'll look like some fairly substantial hit (eg, external forces closing their current account deficit) and a longish period of being economically weakened due to a lack of investment in productive capital. Maybe some riots since the pain will probably not be spread evenly.

It is a catastrophe, but mainly a catastrophe of opportunity costs. We've had a counterfactual running in China over the last 20 years of what could have been happening in the US economy if they hadn't mucked up their overall strategy (particularly energy policy and banking regulation) so badly. Plus there is an impression forming that they are actually a lot weaker militarily than had been assumed to date, I wouldn't put money on Taiwan's long term independence right now. The US doesn't have the funds to handle all the military problems if overseas nations stop picking up the tab.