[fragmede]

you said you said it sarcastically but I like "syllogistic" a lot. We need more volcabulary to describe what LLMs do, and if I tell ChatGPT A implies B implies C, and I tell it A is true, and I can describe that as the LLM syllogisting and not use the words "reasoning" or "thinking", that works for me.

As far as if it will fizzle, even if it does, what we have currently is already useful. Society will take time to adjust to ChatGPT-4's level of capabilities, nevermind whatever OpenAI et al releases next. It can't yet replace a software engineer, but it makes projects possible they previously weren't attempted because they required too much investment previously. So unless you're financially exposed to AI directly (which you might be, many people are!), the question of if it's going to fizzle is more academic than something that demands a rigorous answer. Proofs of a negative are really hard. Reusable rockets were "proven" to be impossible right up until it was empirically proven possible.