[IshKebab]

It seems a bit nonsense to me.

> The mugger argues back that for any low but strictly greater than 0 probability of being able to pay back a large amount of money (or pure utility) there exists a finite amount that makes it rational to take the bet.

This is a basic logic error. It ignores the very obvious fact that increasing the reward amount decreases the probability that it will be returned.

E.g. if the probability of the reward R being returned is (0.5/R) we get "a low by strictly greater than 0 probability", and for that probability there is a (different) finite reward that would make it rational to take the bet, but it's not R.

This is even simpler and more stupid than the "proofs" that 0=1. It does not change my opinion that philosophers (and lesswrong) are idiots.

[stuartjohnson12]

That's what the person responding to meant - attempts to make human systems "rational" often involves simplifying dependent probabilities and presenting them as independent.

The rationalist community both frequently makes this reasoning error and is aware they frequently make this error, and coined this term to refer to the category of reasoning mistake.

[IshKebab]

> coined this term to refer to the category of reasoning mistake.

That's not at all what the Wikipedia article for it says. It presents it as an interesting paradox with several potential (and incorrect!) "remedies" rather than a category of basic logical errors.

[close04]

The “quadrillion days of happiness” offered to a rational person gives away that such allegories are anthropomorphized just for the sake of presentation. For the sake of what the philosophers mean, you should probably imagine this as an algorithm running on a machine (no AGI).

It’s a mental tease, not a manual on how to react when faced with a mugger who forgot his weapon at home but has an interesting proposition to make.

Similarly the trolley problem isn’t really about real humans in that situation, or else the correct answer would always be “do nothing”.

It’s what the comment here [0] says. If you try to analyze everything purely rationally it will lead to dark corners of misunderstanding and madness.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42902931

[WesolyKubeczek]

> Similarly the trolley problem isn’t really about real humans in that situation, or else the correct answer would always be “do nothing”.

The correct answer in case of it being about real people, of course, is to switch immediately after the front bogey makes it through. This way, the trolley will derail and make a sharp turn before it runs over anyone, and stop.

The passengers will get shaken, but I don’t remember fatalities being reported when such things happened for real with real trams.

[bee_rider]

The scenario is set up by an evil philosopher though, so they can tie up the people arbitrarily close to the split in the rails, such that your solution doesn’t work, right?

[WesolyKubeczek]

In this case, it won’t matter, I’m afraid, which way the trolley goes as it will at least mangle both groups of people, and the only winning move is to try to move as many people as possible away from the track.

An Eastern European solution is to get a few buddies to cut the electrical wire that powers the trolleys and sell it for scrap metal, which works on all electrical trolleys. (After the trolley stops, it can be scavenged for parts you can sell as scrap metal, too.)

[IshKebab]

> The “quadrillion days of happiness” offered to a rational person gives away that such allegories are anthropomorphized just for the sake of presentation.

So what? It's still presented as if it's a interesting problem that needs to be "remedied", when in fact it's just a basic maths mistake.

If I said "ooo look at this paradox: 1 + 1 = 2, but if I add another one then we get 1 + 1 + 1 = 2, which is clearly false! I call this IshKebab's mugging.", you would rightly say "that is dumb; go away" rather than write a Wikipedia article about the "paradox" and "remedies".

> Similarly the trolley problem isn’t really about real humans in that situation, or else the correct answer would always be “do nothing”.

It absolutely wouldn't. I don't know how anyone with any morals could claim that.

[tacitusarc]

Interestingly, the trolley problem is decided every day, and humanity does not change tracks.

There are people who die waiting for organ donors, and a single donor could match multiple people. We do not find an appropriate donor and harvest them. This is the trolley problem, applied.

[rachofsunshine]

I would pull the lever in the trolley problem and don't support murdering people for organs.

The reason is that murdering people for organs has massive second-order effects: public fear, the desire to avoid medical care if harvesting is done in those contexts, disproportionate targeting of the organ harvesting onto the least fortunate, etc.

[bee_rider]

Yea, it doesn’t seem quite right to say that the trolley problem isn’t about really people. I mean the physical mechanical system isn’t there but it is a direct abstraction of decisions we make every day.

[IshKebab]

> We do not find an appropriate donor and harvest them. This is the trolley problem, applied.

I don't think that matches the trolley problem particularly well for all sorts of reasons. But anyway your point is irrelevant - his claim was that the trolley problem isn't about real humans, not that people would pull the lever.

Edit: never mind, I reread your comment and I think you were also agreeing with that.