[giantg2]

'“run a mental simulation and anticipate second order effects” are uncommon skill.'

There are literally people who are innately unable to do this (run mental simulations). I wonder what the percentage is though.

[viraptor]

Did you use the right word there? Nobody's born with that ability.

[giantg2]

You don't have to possess it as an infant for it to be innate. You don't have color vision when hour born either.

[viraptor]

I do mean long term - unless you've got experience with dealing with complex tasks as you grow up, is there any chance at all that you'll be good at that? (Research link welcome)

[giantg2]

I was referring to mental imagery. Please see Aphantasia.

[viraptor]

Aphantasia is different than mental simulation. It's specifically to do with visualisation and doesn't seem to affect things like reasoning/planning.