[nradov]

The thesis at the time was that through engagement and free trade we could gradually (over decades) transform China into something closer to a free-market multiparty liberal democracy. That policy obviously didn't work — in fact it has been a complete and utter failure — but even in retrospect it wasn't completely crazy or stupid. It could have at least partially worked if someone other than Xi Jinping had replaced Hu Jintao. Unfortunately a lot of major geopolitical trends come down to random luck and unpredictable individual personalities.

Now we have to pivot and focus on containment in Cold War II.