[lolinder]

The Section 174 changes are terrible for startups, but yes, they're only inconvenient for established companies. Many startups won't even last long enough to amortize all of their dev expenses, especially if they owe taxes on "profits" earned during those first few years. The whole startup ecosystem (which is what this set of job listings is largely measuring) relied on being unprofitable and therefore untaxable.

> It may not be caused by AI, but it is going to affect hiring numbers from now on.

That remains to be seen. I can say with high confidence that we did not have tech that was capable of reducing the need for engineers from 2022 to 2024. It's hard to predict the future.

[meragrin_]

How many developer jobs are due to startups? I can't imagine enough to really affect the job market all that much. There's a lot of people out there looking.

>> It may not be caused by AI, but it is going to affect hiring numbers from now on.

> That remains to be seen. I can say with high confidence that we did not have tech that was capable of reducing the need for engineers from 2022 to 2024. It's hard to predict the future.

If I can run some small models locally which helps me significantly right now, I don't really think it is hard to make the jump to needing fewer engineers overall. I've seen people paying for the big models do even more.

[lolinder]

> How many developer jobs are due to startups?

Out of the Who's Hiring thread on Hacker News, which is what this chart in TFA is measuring? I don't know, but I'm assuming a pretty big chunk.