[puppymaster]

I also dont get how this is bearish for NVDA. Before this, small to mid companies would give up on finetuning their own model because openai is just so much better and cheaper. Now deepseek SOTA model gives them much better quality baseline model to train on. Wouldn't more people want to RAG on top of deepseek? or some startups accountant would run the numbers and figures we can just inference the shit out of deepseek locally and in the long run we still come out ahead of using oenai api.

Either way that means a lot more NVDA hardware being sold. You still need CUDAs as rocm is still not there yet. In fact NVDA needs to churn out more CUDAs than ever.

[hattmall]

Because their biggest buyer(s) just ran into a buzzsaw. NVDA's stratospheric valuation is based on a few select customer's unrestrained ability to purchase the latest products. That unrestrained spending ability was fueled by the "AI" arms race. If those companies see their ability to be profitable with "AI" as diminished then their ability to continue spending with NVDA is probably going to be diminished as well. Anything considered bad for NVDA's top spenders is going to be viewed as bad for NVDA as well.

[wisty]

At a guess, Nvidia stock prices are basically fiction at this point (are there lots of short AND long selling - IIRC butterfly spreads?).

A good fundamental analysis is probably very hard to get right, and the game is probably just guessing which way everyone else will guess the herd is going to jump.

[nycdatasci]

NVDA can't really "churn out more CUDAs" because CUDA is a software platform/framework, not a physical product.

[ip26]

Not sure if I believe it’s bearish, but the PC made computers cheaper and demand exploded, yet wasn’t very good for IBM.

[woah]

It could have been great for IBM if they had done things differently

[dralley]

IBM probably couldn't have done things differently given the antitrust scrutiny they were under. And that was likely the best outcome for the industry anyway.

[protocolture]

Agree completely. I would hate to have seen what would have happened if IBM could legally prevent the clean room reimplementation of their bios.

[Rury]

Maybe because the loudest news said it was bearish. Lot's of people let the media do their thinking for them.

[startupsfail]

GPUs are now 47 times faster, thanks to all the software improvements, so the prices are about to go up, right? Buckle up!

[theptip]

The bear case is something like “investors are going to call BS on multi-billion training DC investments”. That represents most of their short-run demand.

Not sure what is supposed to happen to the inference demand but I guess that could be modeled as more of a long-run thing, as inference is going to be very coin-operated (companies need it to be net profitable now) whereas training is more of a build now profit later game.