[brandonpelfrey]

Great article. I still feel like very few people are viewing the Deepseek effects in the right light. If we are 10x more efficient it's not that we use 1/10th the resources we did before, we expand to have 10x the usage we did before. All technology products have moved this direction. Where there is capacity, we will use it. This argument would not work if we were close to AGI or something and didn't need more, but I don't think we're actually close to that at all.

[VHRanger]

Correct. This effect is known in economics since forever - new technology has

- An "income effect". You use the thing more because it's cheaper - new usecases come up

- A "substitution effect." You use other things more because of the savings.

I got into this on labor economics here [1] - you have counterintuitive examples with ATMs actually increasing the number of bank branches for several decades.

[1]: https://singlelunch.com/2019/10/21/the-economic-effects-of-a...

[jnwatson]

This is called Jevons Paradox.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox.

[neuronic]

Would this not mean we need much much more training data to fully utilize the now "free" capacities?

[vonneumannstan]

It's pretty clear that the reasoning models are using mass amounts of synthetic data so it's not a bottleneck.

[aurareturn]

Yep. I’ve been harping on this. DeepSeek is bullish for Nvidia.

[ReptileMan]

>DeepSeek is bullish for Nvidia.

DeepSeek is bullish for the semiconductor industry as a whole. Whether it is for Nvidia remains to be seen. Intel was in Nvidia position in 2007 and they didn't want to trade margins for volumes in the phone market. And there they are today.

[aurareturn]

Why wouldn't it be for Nvidia? Explain more.

[ReptileMan]

Well so far the paradigm is for powerful silicone that only Nvidia could deliver - so they could charge high margins.

Theoretically they could be on top if the paradigm changes to big volume slower and lower margin one. But there may be another winner.

[aurareturn]

At the end of the day, it all boils down to value.

Do AMD chips offer more value than Nvidia chips?

[mvdtnz]

Great, now I can rewrite 10x more emails or solve 10x more graduate level programming tasks (mostly incorrectly). Brave new world.