[Deegy]

I think this is the correct take. There might be a small bubble burst initially after a bunch of US stocks retrace due to uncertainty. But in the long run this should speed up the proliferation of productivity gains unlocked by AI.

[crocowhile]

I think we should not underestimate one aspect: at the moment, a lot of hype is artificial (and despicable if you ask me). Anthropic says AI can double human lifespan in 10 years time; openAI says they have AGI behind the corner; META keeps insisting on their model being open source when they in fact only release the weights. They think - maybe they are right - that they would not be able to get these massive investments without hyping things a bit but deepseek's performance should call for things to be reviewed.

[resters]

Based on reports from a16z the US Government likely wants to bifurcate the top-tier tech and bring it into DARPA, with clear rules for how capable anything can be that the public will be able to access.

I consider it unlikely that the new administration is philosophically different with respect to its prioritization of "national security" concerns.

[diego_sandoval]

> Anthropic says AI can double human lifespan in 10 years time;

That's not a crazy thing to say, at all.

Lots of AI researchers think that ASI is less than 5 years away.

> deepseek's performance should call for things to be reviewed.

Their investments, maybe, their predictions of AGI? They should be reviewed to be more optimistic.

[crocowhile]

I am a professor of Neurobiology, I know a thing or two about lifespan research. To claim that human lifespan can be doubled is crazy per se. To claim it can be done in 10 years by a system that does not even exist is even sillier.