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by jimbokun 512 days ago
Looks on pace to eliminate every human job over 10 years.

What is the hard limiting factor constraining software and robots from replacing any human job in that time span? Lots of limitations of current technology, but all seem likely to be solved within that timeframe.
1 comments
goatlover 512 days ago
What data to you have to support such a claim?
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adamredwoods 512 days ago
From Zuckerberg, for example:

>> "a lot of the code in our apps and including the AI that we generate, is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers."

https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/meta-developing-a...

Ikea's been doing this for a while:

>> Ingka says it has trained 8,500 call centre workers as interior design advisers since 2021, while Billie - launched the same year with a name inspired by IKEA's Billy bookcase range - has handled 47% of customers' queries to call centres over the past two years.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/ikea-bets-remote-interior...

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dwnw 512 days ago
By your own admission, Ikea eliminated 0 jobs and you gave no number for Meta.
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adamredwoods 512 days ago
Do you expect all companies to retrain? Do you expect CEOs to be wrong? Do you expect AI to stay the same, get better, or get worse? I never made the claim that new jobs will NOT be made, that is yet to be seen, but jobs will be lost to AI.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/18/bt-cut-jobs...

>> “For a company like BT there is a huge opportunity to use AI to be more efficient,” he said. “There is a sort of 10,000 reduction from that sort of automated digitisation, we will be a huge beneficiary of AI. I believe generative AI is a huge leap forward; yes, we have to be careful, but it is a massive change.”

Goldman Sacs:

https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/202...

>> Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300mn full-time jobs to automation.

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throw83288 512 days ago
I'm on your side, but there's two readings of these reports:

1) "We are serious, this is going to happen."

2) "AI is big right now so if we hype it we might get some money!"

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jimbokun 510 days ago
I do not have any hard data from 10 years from now.

My speculation is based on not seeing any constraints that will block progress of machine intelligence from reaching those capabilities within 10 years.

Also, Kurzweil's predictions from early 2000s have been eerily prescience and this is the time frame he predicted for the Singularity.

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